Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in South America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Peru⮸

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $888,715$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,017,304.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 150.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,017,304.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,149$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,342.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.3)}}\) (asimptote \(35,342.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $43,571$ on 2020-10-26

Bolivia⮸

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $140,952$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{142,757.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.4)}}\) (asimptote \(142,757.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,658$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,592.6}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 145.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,592.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23,066$ on 2020-10-26

Brazil⮸

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,409,854$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,547,182.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 140.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,547,182.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $157,397$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{159,250.7}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 121.2)}}\) (asimptote \(159,250.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $726,064$ on 2020-10-26

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $503,598$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{460,949.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 110.1)}}\) (asimptote \(460,949.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $14,003$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,948.5}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 109.5)}}\) (asimptote \(12,948.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,718$ on 2020-10-26

Ecuador⮸

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $162,178$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{182,774.1}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 146.8)}}\) (asimptote \(182,774.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12,573$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,063.9}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 195.8)}}\) (asimptote \(21,063.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,846$ on 2020-10-26

Argentina⮸

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,102,301$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,586,867.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 201.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,586,867.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,301$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{63,696.3}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 220.0)}}\) (asimptote \(63,696.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $163,414$ on 2020-10-26

Colombia⮸

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,025,052$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,039,539.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 160.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,039,539.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30,348$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,745.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 145.7)}}\) (asimptote \(30,745.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $70,660$ on 2020-10-26

Suriname⮸

Population $586,632$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,180$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,185.8}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 150.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,185.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $110$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117.2}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 142.2)}}\) (asimptote \(117.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33$ on 2020-10-26

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Chile recovered 88%
Bolivia recovered 62%
Venezuela recovered 61%

Venezuela⮸

Population $28,435,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $90,047$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98,164.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 169.8)}}\) (asimptote \(98,164.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $777$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{885.5}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 161.9)}}\) (asimptote \(885.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,826$ on 2020-10-26