Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $888,715$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,017,304.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 150.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,017,304.4\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,149$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,342.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.3)}}\) (asimptote \(35,342.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $43,571$ on 2020-10-26
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $140,952$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{142,757.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.4)}}\) (asimptote \(142,757.4\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,658$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,592.6}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 145.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,592.6\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,066$ on 2020-10-26
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,409,854$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,547,182.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 140.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,547,182.7\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $157,397$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{159,250.7}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 121.2)}}\) (asimptote \(159,250.7\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $726,064$ on 2020-10-26
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $503,598$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{460,949.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 110.1)}}\) (asimptote \(460,949.4\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $14,003$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,948.5}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 109.5)}}\) (asimptote \(12,948.5\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,718$ on 2020-10-26
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $162,178$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{182,774.1}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 146.8)}}\) (asimptote \(182,774.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $12,573$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,063.9}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 195.8)}}\) (asimptote \(21,063.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,846$ on 2020-10-26
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,102,301$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,586,867.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 201.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,586,867.8\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,301$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{63,696.3}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 220.0)}}\) (asimptote \(63,696.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $163,414$ on 2020-10-26
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,025,052$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,039,539.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 160.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,039,539.9\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30,348$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,745.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 145.7)}}\) (asimptote \(30,745.8\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $70,660$ on 2020-10-26
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,180$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,185.8}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 150.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,185.8\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $110$ on 2020-10-26
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117.2}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 142.2)}}\) (asimptote \(117.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33$ on 2020-10-26